Happy New Year!

 Hello, I just wanted to wish you a Happy New Year and a happy 2025. 

I think that this could be an interesting year. Everything feels strangely chaotic, doesn't it? The situation with American politics seems to promise upheaval, probably on a global scale. It already looks like Trump will alienate many countries, which may well strengthen America's rivals and sow strife in North America. There are already news stories about Canada and Denmark moving to increase their military strength as a result of Trump's "teasing" (as CNN has defined it). Elsewhere, the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East seem likely to continue and I imagine the far right will continue to gain influence in Europe and elsewhere. I certainly don't think the UK will be untouched by that, especially as our last election actually saw members of Reform elected to Parliament. Concern over Muslim influence is still running high here, even though we can safely say that the rightwing press has been using the frog exaggerator from the Simpsons (again) to make a small minority look more menacing. It's a little like the culture war over Trans people, since most British people probably have never met someone from the Muslim faith in the same way they've never met anyone from the Trans community. Ergo, they're both easy targets for bigots. 

Here in the UK, I suspect we'll have more scandals over some of the decisions the government has to make because of how badly off our economy is. The narrative of Tory mismanagement is going to be pushed hard over the next few years, if only because Labour are clearly planning to use it in 2029's general election. In the meantime, they'll be punished in the polls in May for cutting the Winter Fuel Allowance for pensioners, but I'm not sure there'll be much damage from that, especially because this winter has been pretty mild so far.

Of course, that might change dramatically, as the UK's weather is more chaotic than a lot of countries, and I know I'm in a microclimate on the south coast, so my experience isn't going to be the same as a lot of other people's. All the same it feels like things have been pretty gentle so far. 

All the same, Labour might feel the electorate's scorn in May because the government usually does (it's a little like the midterms in the US, where the opposition party usually does better). If nothing else, the pandemic showed how much we value our elderly relatives in the UK. Which is probably a good thing because we are becoming a gerontocracy. 

Anyway, I don't much to change from 2024, to be honest. The problems that have afflicting the world haven't been resolved so they'll simply continue. We don't have the will to make the changes that both we, as a species, and the planet need us to make, mostly because we're more concerned with the economy and playing the game of "who has the most stuff" than we are with living. 

As I say I wish you a happy new year... though I'm also conscious that I've probably just ruined that (I hope I overstate the amount of influence I have over your life, at least in this moment). 

Now, go buy my books!